قدرت پیش‌‌بینی‌‌کنندگی جریان نقد آتی توسط سود و جریان‌‌های نقدی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، دانشکدۀ علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد، گروه مدیریت مالی، موسسه آموزش عالی راغب اصفهانی، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

هدف: هدف این پژوهش بررسی توان پیش‌‌بینی جریان‌‌های نقدی آتی توسط سودهای گذشته در مقایسه با جریان‌‌های نقدی گذشته است.
روش: نمونه‌ای متشکل از 69 شرکت طی سال‌های 1383 تا 1396 انتخاب و برای تجزیه ‌و تحلیل داده‌‌ها از مدل‌های رگرسیونی با استفاده از داده‌‌های مقطعی، تحلیل سری زمانی و روش مارکوف استفاده شد؛ همچنین در این پژوهش، از روش فرآیندهای تصادفی مارکوف برای پیش‌بینی جریان‌‌های نقدی آتی استفاده شد؛ به همین منظور ماتریس‌‌های احتمال انتقال تشکیل و پس از بررسی برقراری فروض پایۀ الگو، فرآیند انتقال تخمین و یافته‌‌ها استخراج شد.
نتایج: نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان می‌دهد در پیش‌‌بینی جریان‌‌های نقدی عملیاتی آتی، توان تبیین جریان‌‌های نقدی عملیاتی گذشته بیشتر از سودهای عملیاتی گذشته است. یافته‌‌ها در این روش نیز حاکی از برتری توان پیش‌‌بینی جریان‌‌های نقدی نسبت به سود و زیان عملیاتی است. سایر نتایج نشان داد اقلام تعهدی و نیز تفکیک آن با اجزای کوچک‌‌تر، هرچند به‌‌تنهایی توان پیش‌‌بینی‌‌کنندگی جریان نقد آتی را ندارد، با اضافه‌‌شدن به مدل‌هایی که از جریان‌‌های نقدی گذشته برای پیش‌‌بینی جریان نقد آتی استفاده می‌‌کنند، توان آنها را افزایش می‌‌دهد. در یک جمله، یافته‌ها حاکی از نقش برجسته‌تر صورت جریان‌‌های نقدی نسبت به صورت سود و زیان در پیش‌‌بینی‌‌کنندگی جریان‌های نقدی آتی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Predictive Power of Future Cash Flow by Earning and Cash Flow

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amin Hajiannejad 1
  • Seyed Rasoul Hosayni 2
  • Seyed Rasoul Danesh 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
3 M. A. Department of Financial Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting Ragheb Isfahani Higher Education Institute, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is to investigate the ability of past earnings, compared to past cash flows, to predict future cash flows. A sample of 69 companies was selected, during the years 2004 to 2017, and regression models were applied to analyze the data, using cross-sectional data and time series analysis. Also, in this study, Markov random methods are used to predict future cash flows. For this purpose, transfer probability matrices were formed and after examining the basic assumptions of the model, the transfer process was estimated and the findings were extracted. The results of the study show that in predicting future operating cash flows, the ability to explain past operating cash flows has been greater than past operating profits. Findings in this method also indicate the superiority of the cash flow forecasting power over operating profit and loss. Other results show that although accruals, as well as their breakdown into smaller components, lack the predictive power of future cash flows, by adding models from past cash flows, they acquire the power of prediction. In short, the findings indicate the prominent role of cash flow, compared to profit and loss, in predicting future cash flows.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Operating cash flow
  • Operating profit
  • Trend
  • Markov transfer matrix

مراجع

References
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مدیریت دارایی و تامین مالی
دوره 9، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 35
نشریه مدیریت دارایی و تامین مالی، سال نهم، شماره پیاپی 35، شماره چهارم، زمستان 1400
دی 1400
صفحه 1-26

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