هدف: این پژوهش عوامل مؤثر بر ارزش نگهداشت وجه نقد را در شرکتهای پذیرفتهشده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در شرایط عدم اطمینان بررسی میکند. هدف این پژوهش ارزیابی این موضوع است که آیا در شرایط عدم اطمینان نگهداری وجه نقد ارزشمند است و مواجهۀ شرکت با مشکلات مالی و هزینههای نمایندگی و افزایش نرخ رشد چه تأثیری بر روابط این متغیرها میگذارد. نتایج این پژوهش، اطلاعاتی درخصوص سیاست وجه نقد نگهداریشده در ایجاد ارزش، در اختیار سرمایهگذاران قرار میدهد.
روش پژوهش: در این پژوهش، تعداد 168 شرکت فعال در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی دورۀ زمانی 1390 تا 1397 بهمنظور آزمون فرضیات انتخاب شد.
یافتههای پژوهش: نتایج آزمون فرضیات نشان میدهد بین عدم اطمینان و ارزش نگهداری وجه نقد توسط شرکتهای پذیرفتهشده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران ارتباط همسو و معناداری وجود دارد؛ بهویژه در شرایط عدم اطمینان در صورت وجود مشکلات نمایندگی و محدودیت در تأمین مالی رابطۀ این دومتغیره تقویت میشود؛ یعنی ذینفعان به ازای هر یک ریالی که شرکت وجه نقد نگهداری میکند، بیش از یک ریال برای آن ارزش قائل هستند؛ اما فرصتهای سرمایهگذاری تأثیری بر این رابطه ندارد.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigating the Factors Affecting the Value of Cash held in the Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange under Conditions of Uncertainty
Objective: This study assessed the factors affecting the value of cash held in the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange under conditions of uncertainty. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether cash holding is valuable in terms of uncertainty and what effects financial problems, agency costs, and growth rate have on the relationships between these variables. The results of this research can provide investors with information about the cash policy maintained for creating value.
Method: In this research, 168 companies were listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2011-2018. To test the hypotheses, the models of Falkander et al. (2006), Dietmar and Mart Smith (2007), and Dennis and Sibika (2010) were used.
Findings: The results of testing the hypotheses showed that there was an effect between uncertainty and the value of cash held by the companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange. The relationship between these two variables was strengthened, especially under conditions of uncertainty in the presence of agency problems and financing limitations. For every rial the companies held in cash, they got a value of more than 1 rial. However, investment opportunities had no effects on this relationship.
Innovation: A review of the literature revealed that no research had been conducted in the field of cash value and there had been no restrictions on financing and agency costs so far. In this regard, new statistical models were used in this study.
Increased competition and drastic technological changes in the business arena have exposed businesses to various operational and commercial risks. In such circumstances, businesses do not have sufficient knowledge and information about different possibilities of future decisions (Williams, 2015). Business executives are taking steps to reduce or eliminate the risks of uncertainty in their business environments. One of the most important steps is the cash storage. Cash as one of the most important components of working capital has always been of special interest to managers and investors. Keeping cash in the company provides such advantages as the ability to do business and deal with potential events, as well as flexibility to finance from internal sources and avoid wasting investment opportunities when limited in external financing (Batum, 2004).
Method and Data
In this study, the models of Falkander et al. (2006), Dietmar and Mart Smith (2007), and Dennis and Sibika (2010) were used to test the hypotheses. Four equations were applied to conduct the research as follows:
Model (1): Ri,t−Rp,t=β0+β1∆Cashi,t+β2 High uncertainty×∆Cashi,t+βCONTROLSCONTROLS+ε i,t
Model (2): Ri,t–Rp,t=β0+β1∆Cash i,t+β2 High uncertainty×∆Cashi,t+β3Constrained×∆Cashi,t+β4 High uncertainty×Constrained×∆Cashi,t+βCONTROLSCONTROLs
Model (3): Ri,t–R p,t=β0+β1∆Cashi,t+β2 High uncertainty×∆Cashi,t+β3×less agency conflicts×∆Cash i,t+β4High uncertainty×less agency conflicts×∆CashI,T+βCONTROLSCONTROLS+εi,:
Model (4): RI,T −Rp,t=β0+β1∆Cashi,t+β2High uncertainty×∆Cashi,t+β3 More investment opportunities×∆Cashi,t+β4High uncertainty×More investment opportunities×∆Cashi,t+βCONTROLSCONTROLS+εi,t
The results of the test model of the 1st hypothesis showed that the estimated coefficient of Variable HIGH_UNCERTAINTY * ΔCASH was more than zero (1.33) and greater than 1. Also, at the error level of 1%, a positive and significant relationship between this variable and the cash value was confirmed. Therefore, the 1st hypothesis of the research was corroborated. The test model results of the 2nd hypothesis revealed that the estimation coefficient of Variable HIGH_UNCERTAINTY * CONSTRAINED * ΔCASH was positive (1.7) and greater than 1. It was believed that the significance level (P-value) of the relevant t-statistic was less than 5% (0.014), so the 2nd hypothesis of the research was confirmed .The test model results of the 3rd hypothesis indicated that the estimation coefficient of Variable UNCERTAINTY * LESSAGENCYCONFLICTS * ΔCASH was positive (17/14) and greater than 1, which meant that for every rial of cash held in the companies with high uncertainty and lower agency costs, the value was more than 1 rial. The test model results of the 4th hypothesis demonstrated that the estimation coefficient of Variable HIGH UNCERTAINTY * MORE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES * ΔCASH was positive (0.36) and the significance level (P-value) of t-statistic was more than 5% (0.764) so that the 4th hypothesis of the research was not approved at the error level of 5%.
Conclusion and discussion
The results of the 1st hypothesis showed that by increasing one rial in cash in the conditions of uncertainty, investors valued it more than 1 rial. This result was in accordance with the theory principles and research of Jung et al. (2017). The results of the 2nd hypothesis displayed that the company was facing financial constraints, while the value of cash holding was significantly related to uncertainty. This result was consistent with the theoretical and research foundations of Jung et al. (2017) and Chakrat Barati (2017). The results of the 3rd hypothesis showed that with an increase of 1 rial in cash, the investors would value it more than 1 rial in case of uncertainty if the company faced agency problems, thus the 3rd hypothesis of the research was confirmed, which was in accordance with theoretical principles and the findings of the research conducted by Jung et al. (2017). The results of the 4th hypothesis revealed that cash holding value had no significant relationship with uncertainty so that the 4th hypothesis was rejected, which was contrary to the theoretical foundations and research results of Khan et al. (2019) and Jung et al. (2017).