University of Isfahan Journal of Asset Management and Financing 2383-1189 14 1 2026 05 22 Examining the Moderating Role of Economic Uncertainty Conditions and Profitability on the Relationship Between Stock Prices and Forward-Looking Risk Disclosure: A Static and Dynamic Approach Examining the Moderating Role of Economic Uncertainty Conditions and Profitability on the Relationship Between Stock Prices and Forward-Looking Risk Disclosure: A Static and Dynamic Approach 99 124 29689 10.22108/amf.2025.143895.1946 FA Fatemeh Mansuri Mohammad Abadi Ph. D. Student, Department of Accounting, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran Akram Taftiyan Associate Professor, Accounting group, Yazd unit, Open Islamic University, Yazd, Iran Mahmoud Moeinadin Professor, Department of Accounting, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran Journal Article 2025 01 10 Capital markets are exposed to a multitude of risks, with forward-looking risk representing a particularly critical category for investor assessment. Shareholders increasingly rely on firms' strategic disclosures to evaluate short- and long-term objectives, performance expectations, and the quality of prospective information. This study examines the value relevance of forward-looking risk disclosures within annual reports, specifically investigating the moderating effects of economic uncertainty and corporate profitability. Utilizing a sample of 93 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) from 2017 to 2023, selected via a systematic filtering process, we measure forward-looking risk disclosure through a content analysis of keyword frequency. Our empirical model employs the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to ensure robust hypothesis testing, with stock price as the dependent variable and the disclosure level as the independent variable. The results demonstrate a statistically significant negative association between forward-looking risk disclosure and stock price. Furthermore, we find that this relationship is significantly moderated by both economic uncertainty, which exacerbates the negative effect, and profitability, which attenuates it. These findings highlight the acute sensitivity of the TSE to macro-economic conditions and firm-specific performance. Consequently, we recommend that policymakers and regulators implement strategies to enhance the transparency and reliability of forward-looking disclosures to improve market efficiency. Capital markets are exposed to a multitude of risks, with forward-looking risk representing a particularly critical category for investor assessment. Shareholders increasingly rely on firms' strategic disclosures to evaluate short- and long-term objectives, performance expectations, and the quality of prospective information. This study examines the value relevance of forward-looking risk disclosures within annual reports, specifically investigating the moderating effects of economic uncertainty and corporate profitability. Utilizing a sample of 93 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) from 2017 to 2023, selected via a systematic filtering process, we measure forward-looking risk disclosure through a content analysis of keyword frequency. Our empirical model employs the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to ensure robust hypothesis testing, with stock price as the dependent variable and the disclosure level as the independent variable. The results demonstrate a statistically significant negative association between forward-looking risk disclosure and stock price. Furthermore, we find that this relationship is significantly moderated by both economic uncertainty, which exacerbates the negative effect, and profitability, which attenuates it. These findings highlight the acute sensitivity of the TSE to macro-economic conditions and firm-specific performance. Consequently, we recommend that policymakers and regulators implement strategies to enhance the transparency and reliability of forward-looking disclosures to improve market efficiency. https://amf.ui.ac.ir/article_29689_3683f9abb3213b6cdfcef2505228b1cf.pdf